It is really amazing to hear each and every important Spanish politician that good relations with Morocco are a must. It is even more shocking to hear Socialist politicians saying that we, Spain, have always great relations with the Kingdom of Morocco.
Good relations with Morocco is something desirable but it is far from being a must, and when someoene dares to say that we have such lovely relations with Moroccan autorities is maybe forgetting that we have had a war incident 7 years ago when kicking Moroccan soldiers off a small Spanish sovereignty island (Perejil), and forgetting as well that we have had no Moroccan ambassador for the last 8 months!
Most of Morocco´s strategic objectives include the need to weaken Spain. A strong Spain controlling from both sides the strait of Gibraltar (mainland Spain and Ceuta /Melilla) and developing a proactive foreign policy in Northern Africa is King-Dictator´s Mohamed VI worst nightmare.
Moroccan services know that a socialist led cabinet is always weaker. Socialist are more reluctant to show teeth, they also carry this unique Spanish guilt complex that consist in a "please forgive us" attitude towards any one who calls us racists or simply anyone saying they are "moderate" muslims.
Morocco knows that over a million of their citizens living in Spain and some even serving in our armed forces are a very important asset in their strategic game, but it is not the most important asset.
Every intelligence service knows that updated, relevant and dirty information about your rival is precious. In the intelligence arena Morocco has probably as much relevant information as Spain does but Morocco has a huge advantage: Morocco is not a democracy.
There is nothing such as free press, free television or freedom of opinion, the King and his people can do and undo at their own discretion and they can shut a radio station, censor newspapers and arrest journalist and no one will dare to protest. The Moroccan authorities have almost nothing to fear about their public opinion having access to confidential information leaked from Spanish secret services.
On the contrary Spanish authorities, from King Juan Carlos down to the last government official, have much more to fear about the use that Moroccan secret services do of the delicate information they manage.
The fact that it is very likely, in my case I am certain, that Morocco manages really compromising and delicate information about Madrid terrorsit attack in March 11th 2004 is a terrible threat to Spanish socialist government.
The possibility that Morocco´s services leak evidences that could lead to prove that some pro-socialist individuals operating in the "sewing system" of the Ministry of the Interior during the José María Aznar´s administration knew more about the terrorist attack is a devastating scenario for Spanish socialist government now.
If Morocco leaks information proving that pro-socialist elements were acting on their own during the conservative administration of Aznar and that these elements plotted so as to change the colour of the government in 2004, Zapatero would have to resign.
The sole idea of a joint venture between low profile Moroccan drug dealer criminals, that "happened" to be also police informers, and "freelance" pro socialist elements from the Spanish security services to change a government by the use of terror seems a crazy thing if we are not in the context of what happened in Spain in March 2004:
1.- Hundreds of tons of debris and unclaimed personal belongings from passengers on board the trains (evidences) vanished. This is something completely out of the police procedures about crime scene investigation and evidence protection. Even in plain or train accidents the wreckages are kept for months to be studied.
2.- The little evidence that was left was not analyzed by the Forensic Police Lab as it is regularly done. In this case they were analyzed by the deactivation squad lab, which is a lab meant for on site first analysis not for proper in depth studies.
3.- This terrorist attack that took place 3 days prior to the general elections was "solved" in less than two days, exactly the time needed for the socialist party to siege the Popular Party offices accross the country.
4.- A new analysis carried by 6 experts (from Police, Guardia Civil and 2 independent) proved that the explosive that blasted in March 11th 2004 was not Goma2-ECO nor Goma 2-EC as it was "proved" shortly after the attack.
There are many more odd and unexplained things surrounding this black chapter in recent Spanish History, I simply wanted to bring some of these obscure facts so as to put you in context.
No doubt this is a very delicate issue, and since it remains dark and, to all common sense standards, unsolved any secret service that manages relevant information about it can twist Zapatero´s wrist and put him on his knees, and chances are that Moroccan services have relevant and very "dirty" intelligence concerning this "terrorist" attack.
The socialist government has very little time left being in office, therefore Morocco must act fast to add more concessions from Spain before softy Zapatero disappears from the politic scenario.
The demonstrations in Melilla´s border to complain against the frontier police, with the Moroccan police letting then act, is just another excuse to put pressure on Zapatero.
Of course Morocco´s services know that the information they have about March 11th 2004 can be dangerous for Moroccan interests too but they also know well that what for them would be dangerous for the Spanish government would be simply devastating and that is how the game goes: Morocco pushing as they bear their March 11th "gun" and Spain slowly retreating trying to calm them.
For Moroccan services this is the kind of information that can "burn" your hands and "kill" your adversary. You don´t want to get burnt but you can run that risk whereas your adversary can´t afford to "be killed".
And what does Morocco expect from Spain for being such a friendly foe? They want several things, money included, but on top of the list we find:
1.- A pro Moroccan position with regard to Western Sahara. Spain was the colonisal metropoly in 1975 when the "Green March" from Morocco occupied Western Sahara. Franco was in his dying bed and king Juan Carlos (still prince in those days) flew there fast to tell everyone we had to pack our stuff and leave the Saharaui people to the hands of blody Hassan II. For 35 years Morocco has occupied an invaded territory that claims to be part of itself and for those same years Saharaui people have fought them with the support of Algeria who in 1975 wanted an Atlantic gate and is Morocco´s number one adversary in Northern Africa. If Spain shifts from a moderate neutral position (a coward position to my understanding) to a more pro-Moroccan one that would mean a big moral victory for them and a big punch on Spanish speaking Western Sahara freedom fighters.
2.- A less intense relation with Algeria. Self-explanatory.
3.- More concessions in terms of European Union-Morocco relations. That translates into less restrictions for Morocco to export fruit and vegetables which of course, although many Spanish companies own these Moroccan export businesses, has an impact on Spanish products distribution accross the rest of Europe. Also means to grant Morocco with best in class agreements with the EU in all the fields of commerce and investment.
4.- To occupy the two Spanish cities in Northern Africa: Ceuta and Melilla. This is a long term objective that from a Moroccan perspective cannot be achived until they count with enough military strength and the approval of the USA or whatever regional or global power that may exist by the time they believe this goal must be achived. The Perejil island incident proved that the USA backed Spain while France was more pro-Moroccan and also proved that Aznar was up to no jokes when the commandos jumped from the helicopters. Another recurrent threat that Morocco uses is that a more radical Islamic regime would be a threat to these two Spanish cities and for that reason Spain must support Mohamed´s tyranny.
During the last 40 years our policy towards Morocco can be described using the sentence that Frank Delano Roosvelt once said referring to Somoza:
"He may be a son of a bitch but he is our son of a bitch"
In the game theory applied to foreign strategic relations when you play hawk against someone who plays dove usually you will get good results while the other part chooses to go on playing in dove "mode". This is the case here; Zapatero thinks that we owe Morocco something and he is playing the appeasement role, same as he does with any dictator of this planet, thinking he does that for the sake of some stupid concept named "Civilization Allience".
What is civilization dude? To put down women and mistreat them is civilization Zapatero? To prosecute gays? To chop the hands off thieves? To forbit the preaching of another religion?
What can Spain do to revert this situation? Easy; change into hawk "mode":
1.- Support Bereber factions in Northern Morocco. Create a network of radio and television broadcasting stations in Berber (something that is forbidden in Morocco) and weaken the King´s position in this part of the Moroccan Empire (it was not part of Morocco until the Sultan became king and the Rif gained independence from Spain and the souther part of the country gained control over the Berber lands of the Kabilas)
2.- Support Western Sahara independence in the UN and all the international forums. Grant Saharaui people Spanish support and humanitarian aid and financial funds. Broadcast for the Western Sahara from Canary Islands for the sake of free information and the right of the Saharaui people to have their own mass media.
3.- Sell technology and weapons to Algeria, train their police officers and military personnel. Foster Algeria´s role in the UE-Northern Africa relations. Support Algerian territorial claims (there is a land of about 200.000 square kilometers claimed by Morocco and Algeria)
4.- Help true democratic parties and movements in Morocco allowing them to have voice and presence. Foster a real change in the Moroccan regime, proving that the Tyranny can be replaced for something different than the Islamic fundamentalism.
This last point is the most important one. Helping democracy flourish in Morocco and helping Moroccan people to prosper (without the fear of an almighty feudal regime that controls everything deciding who can get rich and sucking the wealth off the poor Moroccan citizens) would be terrific.
Only the border between North and South Korea exemplifies a bigger gap than the gap between Spain and Morocco in terms of income per capita. This wealth gap must be closed as much as possible and that can´t be done with the current rotten regime. I believe that fostering a large and influent middle class in Morocco and creating the appropriate environment of confidence and freedom is the best that can be done for the sake of Moroccans and Spaniards.
