Caspian Sea accounts for some estimated potential reserves of 200 to 300 billion barrels of oil (Saudi Arabia has some 260 billion) and in terms of natural gas its reserves could be among the 3 most important in the world. Basically the Caspian Sea countries have a potential to produce 15% of the world total oil output and a bigger share of the total gas.
Compared to Saudi Arabian rigs the extraction costs are much higher and the quality of the crude and of the gas (specially this latter) is also lower.
Although the Caspian oil has been extracted from the Czars times this immense wealth is yet to be exploited since the current actual production for the area is still very low when compared to the total reserves.
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The reason for this gap between the potential and the actual current production is no other than the significant effort required in terms of technology and economic investment to drill for and to extract this oil which makes it less attractive than that of the Persian Gulf . However the oil is there and it should not be more difficult to extract it that the oil from the North Sea or the the crude Russia plans to extract from Artic Siberia.
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After the collapse of the Soviet Union five countries share this 371.000 sq kilometers sea (aprox. the surface of Germany) Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan. The first issue was to determine if the Caspian was a sea or a lake.
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That was not a silly question to debate over since if it was considered a lake the 5 countries would have shared its natural resources on a 20% basis (that is 1/5th) whereas if it was considered a sean then it had to be divided into economical sectors as it has been done "de facto" (see second map).
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To refrain the US from meddling in this big business and from getting some share of these strategic assets was impossible. The ever oil thirsty US need to have a foot in the Caspian and also need to guarantee a safe and own controlled gateway for the crude.
China has obviously also a great interest in this business. But the Chinese have a much easier way to guarantee its stake in this business and they have funded an oil pipe line from Kazakhstan and pretend this country to become its ally in the region.
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In order to help understand the general picture I shall briefly describe the interest, strengths and weaknesses of the 5 coastal countries and the 2 super powers (US and China) with respect to the Caspian treasure.
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Russia:
Russia has a great interest in becoming the main player for the oil and gas distribution in the area since it enhances its control over Western European countries (specially with the gas) supplied by Russia. Adding this gas and oil to those distributed from Western Siberia puts Russia in a very strong position when negotiating almost anything with the EU.
Russia has also a great interest in blocking any attempt to threaten its strong position, meaning that will always be interested in the failure of any alternative routes for the oil and gas distribution.
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Last but not least Russia sees a big business opportunity in assisting other Caspian coastal countries providing them with the extraction technology and the know how.
Russia counts with an already existing pipe-line network and also with the only navigable exit off the Caspian Sea: The Volga.
A ship can only leave the Caspian using the Volga and can access the Baltic and Black seas through Russia´s immense water canal network.
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On the cons side, a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline that could get the Caspian oil in the Indian Ocean harbours is not an attractive scenario for the Kremlin. Neither does Russia like the idea of an US friendly Iran teaming up with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to drill and prospect and then getting the oil in the Gulf through a Persian pipeline bypassing Russia´s present predominance in both fields.
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Russia is well awared of the fact that US military bases in Turkmenistan and the fact that this country is practically outside the Russian sponsored Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) mean a challange from the US.
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Chechenia is also a major problem for its territory is crossed by one of the main pipelines that gets the Caspian oil to the Russian Black sea harbour of Novorossiysk. No wonder why the US have always made a big fuss anytime Russia punishes Chechen terrorist (yes, that is what they are)
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We shall presumably see an artificial buid up of tension in Daghestan and Chechenia secretly fostered by the US in order to weaken Russian position in the area and to make their existing and forecoming pipelines less safe
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Kazakhstan:
Kazakhstan has an easy position if compared to other of the Caspian players. They have a large border with China and good relations with Russia. They settled with Russia the maritime borders fast and have since 2005 there is a pipeline in place since 2006 that has supplied China this last six months with 5 million tons of Caspian Oil.
Of course Russia is not terribly happy about Kazakhstan independence in terms of oil distribution but it is not as much a concern as it is the US involvement in the area.
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Turkmenistan:
This country is a personalist dictatorship. In 2006 after Saparmyrat Nyýazow died his son Gurbangulí Berdimujammédov became the Turkmen ruler. Although it is formally a democracy under the 1993 constitucion, Turkmenistan is a presidencial republic with only one political party. Nyýazow was an eccentric individual who enforced laws to make everyone in his country read his book. Turkmenistan is considered by the UN one of the most repressive countries in the world and although it formally belongs to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) it is not a trustful member.
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The US has two military bases in Turkmenistan and has closer ties with this dictatorship in its effort to have a stronghold in the area and to consolidate its first stage for its longed project to construct and control a pipeline Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan.
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Turkmenistan has always held a very opaque position in the talks about the Caspian Sea with the other four neighbours, and given its trend towards fundamentalism and its border with Iran it is a major concern for both Russia and the US.
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Russian and Uzbek minorities as well as non muslims, Islam is the official religion, are closely controlled by the authorities. My opinion is that Turkmenistan will be entering a period of revolution. For Iran it is a threat to have US troops and fighter planes in its north east borders and for Russia it is important to keep Iran´s fundamentalistic hands off Turkmenistan while defending Russian citizens living in this country and at the same time trying to induce a more pro Russian regime that could shake off the US military presence.
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Iran:
The Ayatollahs regime is the least benefited in the partition of the Caspian waters for its stake is the smallest and has always tried to push Russia to recognize the Caspian as a lake instead of as a sea.
Their main interests under the present situation are to construct a pipeline to deliver Caspian oil in the Iranian ports of the Persian Gulf and to gain for its cause both Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Iran is probably the biggest US adversary in this scenario. For the US an Iran-Turkey pipeline is not a secure gateway for the Caspian Oil and the construction of a trans Iranian pipeline is also among the US biggest fears. The US will use the nuclear controversy with respect to Iran to take any military action in this country should they believe that pipeline is about to be constructed.
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Iran has a friendly relation with Russia that is nothing but a tactical maneuver to try to shield its interests against US interference. Russia is considered an enemy by the Iranian regime but they need each other to sweep their patio before they start their own game.
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Azerbaijan:
This country has a big, and old too, oil and gas industry. It is the biggest oil producer (in the region, obviously Russia and Iran produce more in total) and is the only one sharing borders with both Russia and Iran. It is of key importance for Russian projected new pipeline that will go start in Baku and will pass through Daghestan instead of Chechenia.
Neither Russia or Iran want to, at present time, confront interests in Azerbaijan.
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The US military presence in a ruthless dictatorship such as Turkmenistan, the war on terrorism in Afghanistan and the incredible support to Pakistan as well as the inexplicable understanding given to the double game the Islamabad regime plays suporting both the US and the Taliban depending on their tactical interests, are different aspects of a huge effort to guarantee the US a controlled supply of oil.
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Of course there is a war on terrorism going on but if the US has to undertake a war project against terrorism it will always be more likely that they do it in Afghanistan than in Sudan or Mali, or Morocco.
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In this conflict Spain has troops deployed in a couple of places in Afghanistan, same as other western countries, and our president Zapatero wants us to believe it is for humanitarian reasons. Bullshitting as ever.
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We are in a war against terrorism and it was really handy that this terrorists had their headquarters in one of the key countries the US and maybe the rest of the Western world needs for its plans to get the Caspian oil fueling our way of life.
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I don´t forget I have on assignement to go through the Zapatero alliances with so called democratic parties such as PNV...do not miss it!
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Congratulations! It's a very interesting post. Thanks a lot.
ReplyDeleteMuy bueno.
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